Archive for

May 2010

Brazil Will Win The World Cup. Bankers Said So.

By Carolyn Beeler

Financial analysts are engaging in a bit of escapism this spring. Analysts at JP Morgan, Danske Bank, UBS and others have momentarily turned their attention away from the markets to predict the winner of this year's World Cup.

Three out of four big banks that chose a winner picked Brazil, the Financial Times reports.

Danske seems to be taking the econ/soccer comparison a bit too far: They predict a Germany versus Brazil final and write that "as in 'real life' the Emerging Market nation will beat the developed nation."

For our readers who think Planet Money needs to use more ridiculous equations, here's the model the Danish bank used to predict the winner:

world cup formula

The measurements are all about relative strength. The GDP variable, for example, measures GDP per capita relative to the U.S. For those of you keeping score at home, the "Ballon d' Ore nominee" variable attempts to measure the presence of a "superstar" on the team. Very scientific stuff. There's a complete explanation on p. 4 of this PDF.

Think you come up with a better formula for victory? What variables did Danske leave out? Leave us your ideas in the comments section.

Update: Thanks to the commenter who pointed out that the original headline on this post was missing the word "win."

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Google's Latest Launch: Its Own Trading Floor - BusinessWeek

Google's Latest Launch: Its Own Trading Floor

The search giant is hiring Wall Street vets to manage a $26.5 billion pile of cash

By Douglas MacMillan

Last fall, some unusual job listings began cropping up on Google's (GOOG) website. Amid the requests for programmers and engineers were postings for bond traders and portfolio analysts. By spring, tech blogs were speculating about what was going on at Google.

The answer was very un-Silicon Valley. Google, it turns out, has launched a trading floor to manage its $26.5 billion in cash and short-term investments. The hoard is the third-biggest cash pile among U.S. tech companies, after Microsoft (MSFT) and Cisco's (CSCO).

One of the company's goals is to improve the returns on its money, which until now has been managed conservatively. Google doesn't disclose its rate of return on investments or the targets it has set, but analyst Aaron Kessler of ThinkEquity estimates the company's 2010 return (including interest income and realized and unrealized gains before tax) at around 2.5 percent. That's a higher return than some other large Internet outfits, such as Yahoo! and Amazon, he says.

Google is using some of its money to buy back shares in the wake of its $750 million acquisition of mobile advertising firm AdMob, which was an all-stock deal. The transaction was cleared by U.S. regulators on May 21. Investors have been wondering what else the company intends to do with its cash. IBM (IBM) recently announced plans to spend $20 billion over five years on acquisitions. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) just bought Palm (PALM) for $1.2 billion. "Google could do 10 Palm kind of deals," says Michael Yoshikami, president and chief investment strategist of YCMNET Advisors, which owns Google shares. "That would be a pretty decent use of their money." Beyond the AdMob buybacks, Google has said it has no plans to return cash to shareholders.

Google's trading room opened in January. The plan is to keep the war chest growing safely and ready to be deployed should the right mergers-and-acquisitions opportunities arise. The investment team has grown to more than 30 people, up from six three years ago. Many of the new arrivals are former Wall Streeters who left lucrative careers at Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and other banks. The man in charge is Brent Callinicos, Google's 44-year-old treasurer, who joined from Microsoft in 2007, back when Google had $11 billion in cash. "This isn't fast money, this is patient money," he says. His crew works in a recently remodeled finance building on the company's corporate campus in Mountain View, Calif., complete with a rock climbing wall, massage chairs, murals of tropical sunsets, and bamboo wall panels. In a second-floor space accessed by key card—the trading room—the Wall Street vets tap out trades at desks with six computer screens.

Craig A. Jeffery, managing partner of Atlanta-based consultant Strategic Treasurer, says the financial technology at banks and most corporate treasuries tends to be an unwieldy hodgepodge of disparate software applications. If you're crunching numbers in Excel, you probably have to cut and paste the results manually into your foreign- exchange analytics software. Callinicos got around the coordination problem by tapping in-house engineers to meld the various pieces of software into one dashboard for trading and managing cash. "Callinicos built this mosaic of systems and a way of relating them together," says Jeffery.

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May 11, 1951: RAM Is Born

corememory

1951: Jay Forrester files a patent application for the matrix core memory.

Back when computers still weighed hundreds of pounds and were primarily used by the military, computer memory relied on cathode rays to retrieve information. But the Navy needed a faster computer that could run flight simulations in real time.

In stepped a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Led by professor Jay Forrester, the researchers developed a three-dimensional magnetic structure code-named Project Whirlwind.

The structure consisted of a plane made of wires and magnetic rings called cores. Each ring contained one bit of data. Every bit on the memory plane could be accessed with a single read-and-write cycle.

In short, magnetic core memory was the first random access memory that was practical, reliable and relatively high-speed. The time it took to request and retrieve information from memory was a microsecond — hundreds of thousands of times slower than memory today, but nonetheless a magnificent achievement in the 1950s.

“When we were working on this, in a million years we couldn’t imagine what would happen with memory,” said Bernard Widrow, who worked on Project Whirlwind with Forrester, in a 2009 interview with Edison Tech Center.

Forrester applied for a patent on his invention May 11, 1951. Project Whirlwind stayed active until 1959, though the technology was never used for a flight simulator.

Source: Today in Technology History; Edison Tech Center

Photo: Magnetic core memory removed from an Olympia 15-digit Nixie calculator.
Synx508/Flickr

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Square Brings Credit Card Swiping to the Mobile Masses, Starting Today

Are all the financial innovations from the last years coming from outside the traditional financial services companies?

Besides squareup.com, check mint.com, hellowallet.com and of course paypal.com.

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Your Life In 2020

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We did a similar exercise today in the class of Business of Software from Michael Cusumano. The questions was: How will the syllabus of this class looks like in 2020?

Some of the topics that came up:

1) Privacy and data sharing
2) Artificial Intelligence comeback
3) Cyborgs with us and Robots around us
4) Africa as the last market for new business opportunities

What would be your suggestions for a topic in a class on business of software in 2020?

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Microsoft to deliver its cloud-hosted CRM 5 first, software later | ZDNet

Microsoft to deliver its cloud-hosted CRM 5 first, software later

Is this the beginning of a new trend for enterprise software? Is this the way that vendors will force enterprises to go into the cloud?

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